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MUFG:油价年底前可能回落至每桶64美元

2021-09-10 09:58:10 作者:美艳绝世 浏览次数:45 字号: T T T

中国石化新闻网讯 据9月9日Trade Arabia报道,作为全球领先的金融服务集团,也是日本最大银行机构之一的三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)报告称,预计布伦特原油价格将从第二季度的75美元/桶回落至2021年第三季度的73美元/桶和第四季度末的64美元/桶,到2022年降至每桶58美元的平均水平。

周期性需求逆风与结构性供给逆风表明, 2021年剩余时间的油价将保持基本不变或出现下跌态势。预计9月份,油价仍将保持在区间内震荡,市场不愿向任何一个方向波动,但短期内或涨或跌的波动都有可能出现。

MUFG在报告中表示,“在欧佩克+增产、页岩油稳步上升、需求结构更加常态化的压力下,石油短缺情况在进一步削弱。在流动性疲软的这个夏季的大部分时间里,油价一直保持在稳定状态,不愿推动市场朝看跌或看涨的方向发展。然而,随着秋季临近,我们认为油价即将下跌。我们看跌油价的关键原因是,我们相信焦点将从需求转向更高的供应。

这些积极的供应助推力,加上石油库存可能将稳步增加,将日益成为市场未来关注的焦点。”

油价本周保持稳定,可以说整个夏季都保持着相对平稳的趋势。本周,布伦特原油价格跌破100日移动均线,但与50日移动均线的价差扩大,这是可能引发抛售压力的看跌信号。

MUFG报告称:"我们对未来一周的走势持维持平稳或者可能出现下跌的态度,将密切关注数据驱动的宏观影响,而较少关注基本面持续紧张的微弱影响。"

王佳晶 摘译自 Trade Arabia

原文如下:

Oil likely to retreat to $64 by year-end: MUFG

Brent is expected to regress lower from $75 per barrel (/b) in the second-quarter (Q2) to end Q3 and Q4 2021 at $73/b and $64/b, respectively, and to average $58/b in 2022, a report said.

The balancing of cyclical demand headwinds with structural supply tailwinds, points to neutral-to-bearish on oil prices for the rest of 2021, added the latest Oil Market Weekly from the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a leading global financial services group and one of the largest banking institutions in Japan.

Oil prices are expected to remain range bound with hesitancy to push the market in either direction for the remainder of this quarter, but near-term volatility may overshoot on both ends temporarily.

“Under the weight of higher Opec+ output, steadily rising shale, juxtaposed with a more normalised demand profile, we lean short oil further out along the curve,” MUFG said in the report.

Oil prices have remained in a holding pattern for most of the thin liquidity summer period, with hesitancy to push the market in either direction.

“However, as we move towards autumn, we believe that we are on the cusp of a leg lower in oil prices. Key behind our bearish oil price narrative is our conviction that the focus will shift from demand – the profile of which is becoming increasingly normalised and close to pre-virus levels – to higher supply, stemming from (i) higher Opec+ production, (ii) the eventual return of Iranian barrels, and (iii) gradually rising US shale output,” the report said.

These positive supply impulses, in conjunction with the likely steady build-up of oil inventories, are set to become increasingly front of mind going forward.

Week in review and week ahead

Oil prices have remained directionless this week, maintaining a similar trend throughout the summer. Telling this week has been Brent crude slipping below its 100 day moving average, while the gap over the 50 day marker has widened – bearish signals that may prompt selling pressure.

“We are tactically neutral-to-bearish for the week ahead, with attention firmly on data-driven macro trends stemming from delta variant apprehensions, and less on the micro forces of ongoing tight fundamentals,” the MUFG report said.

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