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海外流动性系列三-美联储历次加息,我国货币政策如何应对?

2022-03-25 09:00:03 作者:所有都给你 浏览次数:65 字号: T T T

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海外流动性系列三-美联储历次加息,我国货币政策如何应对?

国信银行观点:我们回顾了1990年以来美联储四轮加息周期下我国央行的应对方式,表明了我国货币政策始终坚持“以我为主”的主基调,始终与我国经济周期相匹配。如2014年至2019年美联储货币政策持续紧缩,但2014-2016Q1、2018Q2-2019年我国采取的是宽松的货币政策,主要是这两个阶段我国处于稳增长阶段。2016Q2-2018Q1我国货币政策紧缩,主要是该阶段我国经济增长强劲,去杠杆是主基调。

预计2022年我国货币政策整体保持偏宽松态势,但以结构性的货币政策为主导。目前我国仍处于稳增长阶段,结合上述美联储几轮加息周期中我国独立的货币政策经验,我们认为2022年我国货币政策仍将坚持“以我为主”的主基调,稳增长环境下货币政策保持偏宽松态势,不会转向紧缩。3 月16 日国务院金融稳定发展委员会召开专题会议后,市场对3月降准降息预期较高,但均落空,我们认为核心不是美联储开启加息,而是统计局披露的1-2月经济数据强劲,超市场预期。同时,我们认为随着稳增长政策的持续加码,稳增长效果将逐步显现,因此货币政策宽松力度不会太大,考虑到经济结构性问题突出,我们判断未来将以结构性的货币政策为主导。

证券分析师:陈俊良 S0980519010001;

王剑 S0980518070002;

田维韦 S0980520030002;

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